# Which bucket adapters increase their target?

This report analyzes the existing 72-adapter listening grid. No new audio,
judging, training or best-seed selection was performed.

Each adapter is compared with its own no-new-adapter baseline at strengths
0.5, 0.75 and 1.0. Each strength has 20 paired observations: five languages,
two neutral-wording three-sentence texts per language, and two seeds. The
literal text, GENERAL/SCRIPT prompt, seed, fixed speaker reference and frame
budget match across conditions. All recordings, including termination failures,
are retained. The shared parent is Humaneness Voice Large 1.5 Alpha with its
real-speech rank-4 adapter already merged. Strength scales only the new rank-32
adapter residual. CFG is 1.

## Primary effect and the displayed score

The primary effect is `(adapter_raw - baseline_raw) / frozen_training_std`.
For a low-pole target, its sign is reversed. Thus a positive effect always means
more of the requested trait, including slower tempo or lower tension. These
are changes in training-standard-deviation units, not probabilities and not
effect sizes based on the variability of this small evaluation sample.
For example, +0.2 z means a gain of one fifth of the frozen training standard
deviation for that head; it does not mean 20% more perceived emotion.

The original page score is also shown. It transforms each raw prediction with
the frozen training mean/std and a Gaussian CDF; for low-pole targets it is
inverted. It can saturate. Averages of this nonlinear transform can move in a
different direction from raw averages, so the report exposes both summaries
and flags disagreements. A tiny consistent scorer change need not be audible.

## Uncertainty and selection

Both texts and both seeds are kept together within each language cluster. We
enumerate all 3,125 bootstrap resamples of the five language clusters and
report percentile intervals. The stricter displayed interval is 98.33%, an
exploratory allowance for examining three strengths within one adapter. With
only five clusters, this is not a strong population-level confidence claim.

The operational label **clearer gain on this grid** requires a positive lower
bound of this stricter interval and positive means in at least four of the
five languages. It does not mean statistically established benefit across all
72 adapter comparisons. For the two style-contrast requests, the opposite head
must also move down under the same stricter criterion; increasing only the
primary head does not establish the whole contrast.

The starting strength is the largest primary gain among clearer strengths if
any qualify. Otherwise the largest positive mean is an uncertain trial. If no
tested strength has a positive primary mean, the no-adapter base is suggested.
This strength selection uses the same evaluation grid, not independent held-out
validation. It is not a claim of a universally optimal strength.

The overview highlights clearer gains of at least 0.1 training-standard-deviation
units as promising starting points. This is an explicit display heuristic,
not a calibrated perceptual threshold. Smaller effects remain in the full table.

## Quality costs and limitations

Changes in Content Enjoyment, genuineness, word error rate and frame-cap rate
are displayed separately; they do not contribute to the target-score ranking.
WER changes use percentage points; positive WER changes are worse. Positive
CE/genuineness changes are higher predicted scores.

These are frozen Humaneness EARS predictions and the existing multilingual ASR
scores on complete waveforms before MP3 encoding. They are not human opinions.
EARS is also the model family used in data screening. There is one fixed voice
reference per language and only two translated texts, so language and speaker
effects cannot be separated and generalization to new voices or richer acting
scenes is unproven. Listen to the paired players before adopting a setting.

## Reproduction and artifacts

`steering-comparison.json` contains every adapter/strength aggregate and every
per-language result. `steering-comparison.csv` provides a flat version. Input
JSON hashes and the normalization/taxonomy hashes are in the report. The original
per-bucket JSON files remain public beside each audio page.

The public analysis source uses Python's standard library:

```bash
python steering_analyze.py --site downloaded-space \
  --normalization downloaded-space/steering-normalization.json \
  --taxonomy downloaded-space/steering-taxonomy.json --out reproduced
```

`downloaded-space` must contain `manifest.json` and the existing per-bucket JSON
pages from this Space, plus the two frozen metadata files linked here. The
deliberately omitted low-warmth/cold-delivery bucket has no adapter and is not
silently assigned a result.
